Ainance

· written 01:57 SGT

Tech selloff deepens as energy and staples hold up before midterms

Markets

US

S&P 5007,580.07-1.82%
Nasdaq25,437.00-2.86%
Dow51,770.31-1.09%
Russell 20002,811.84-1.66%
VIX19.42+12.91%

Asia and Europe

Nikkei 22563,290.11-2.12%
Hang Seng23,294.42+1.46%
Shanghai3,599.02-1.44%
KOSPI5,730.74-3.48%
Taiwan45,211.83-2.49%
STI5,376.74-0.36%
Nifty 5023,053.10+0.51%
STOXX 600646.75-0.36%

Rates and FX

US 10-year4.933%-5.6 bp
US 2-year4.592%-6.4 bp
Dollar index101.96-0.07%
USD/JPY157.53-0.10%
EUR/USD1.12n/a

Commodities

Gold3,898.90n/a
Silver49.28n/a
WTI crude104.12n/a
Brent113.43n/a
Copper6.48n/a
Natural gas2.90n/a

Crypto

Bitcoin78,046.68+0.38%
Ether2,267.29+0.49%
Solana94.66-1.56%
BNB711.35+0.60%
XRP1.25-0.33%

US sectors

Tech179.51-4.89%
Semis522.49-6.98%
Comms99.90-1.29%
Discretionary115.38-0.71%
Financials56.51-0.76%
Health care184.87+0.45%
Industrials167.40-1.60%
Energy70.02+1.91%
Materials52.74+0.40%
Staples89.42+1.41%
Utilities43.43+0.67%
Real estate43.17+0.26%

The last session's close and move; crypto over the last 24 hours, yields in basis points.

Today's calls

Ten each way, scored 1x to 9x for conviction. Each is graded on the asset's next trading session (24 hours for crypto), here, tomorrow morning.

Bullish

  1. XLEState Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF
    Bullish 6x

    ETF70.02 USDlast session +1.91%

    Energy rose 1.91% to 70.02 while the S&P 500 fell 1.82%, the strongest US sector as Brent held at 113.43 and WTI at 104.12. OPEC+ held December output steady amid uncertainty and banks hiked price forecasts on prolonged Gulf disruptions. The sector mix of firm oil and defensive rotation points to follow-through on Mon 2 Nov.

    Risk Progress on US-Iran diplomacy would undercut crude quickly and drag energy with it.

    Sources Seeking Alpha, Daily Sabah, EnergyNow.com, StoneX

  2. XLPState Street Consumer Staples Sel Sect SPDR ETF
    Bullish 6x

    ETF89.42 USDlast session +1.41%

    Consumer Staples rose 1.41% to 89.42 on 1.7 times volume, a defensive leader as tech fell 4.89%, hitting a record high with its best monthly run since 1998. Coverage notes rotation into defensive and high-quality names as protection demand rises with VIX at 19.42. That bid favors another firm session.

    Risk A sharp risk-on reversal on election polls or yields would hurt defensives.

    Sources TradingView, Moomoo, Yahoo Finance

  3. FXIiShares China Large-Cap ETF
    Bullish 5x

    ETF33.08 USDlast session +1.19%

    iShares China Large-Cap rose 1.19% to 33.08 while Hang Seng rose 1.46% to 23,294.42, outperforming Nikkei and KOSPI, on reports China will convene a meeting on supporting the market and regulators will act to arrest the slide. Reported but widely covered stimulus hopes give FXI a near-term tailwind into Mon 2 Nov.

    Risk If Beijing offers no concrete support, Hong Kong gains could reverse quickly.

    Sources Bloomberg.com, South China Morning Post, Eurasia Review

  4. TRXTron
    Bullish 5x

    Crypto0.3136 USDT24h +2.02%

    Tron rose 2.02% to 0.3136 over 24 hours, the top crypto mover while bitcoin rose 0.38% and Solana fell 1.56%. Binance reopened selected withdrawals on Tron after the $6.3 billion hack. Relative strength plus restored network flows supports upside over the next 24 hours.

    Risk Renewed hack headlines or exchange outflows could hit altcoins broadly.

    Sources CNN, www.tokenpost.com, CryptoTicker.io

  5. BNB
    Bullish 5x

    Crypto711.35 USDT24h +0.60%

    BNB rose 0.60% to 711.35 over 24 hours, outperforming Solana, as Binance resumed withdrawals in phases starting with bitcoin, BNB and majors and said it covered most losses after the $6.3 billion hack. The confirmed restart of withdrawals removes an overhang for the exchange token into the next 24 hours.

    Risk Another security scare or a large post-hack outflow could pressure BNB.

    Sources CNN, WSJ, CoinDesk, TradingView

  6. Brent crudeICE Brent Crude (Jan'27) · @LCO.1
    Bullish 5x

    Commodity113.43 USDlast session n/a

    Brent crude holds at 113.43 after OPEC+ held December output steady and banks hiked forecasts on Gulf disruptions. Coverage linked three oil and gas stocks to higher Brent. With supply held tight, price momentum leans up into Mon 2 Nov.

    Risk Diplomacy headlines with Iran could knock crude off recent highs.

    Sources Yahoo Finance, Seeking Alpha, EnergyNow.com

  7. XOMExxonMobil Holdings Corp
    Bullish 4x

    Stock187.25 USDlast session +2.16%

    Exxon Mobil rose 2.16% to 187.25, near its 52-week high, on 1.8 times volume while energy led US sectors. Higher Brent and reports of a profit surge for US oil giants on the Iran war underpin cash flow. The volume-backed breakout points to continuation.

    Risk A pullback in crude or profit taking near the 52-week high at 188.50 could stall the move.

    Sources Yahoo Finance, thenational.co.za, Barchart.com

  8. 700-HKTencent Holdings Limited
    Bullish 4x

    Stock383.60 HKDlast session +1.59%

    Tencent rose 1.59% to 383.60 HKD while most Asian majors fell, lifted by Hang Seng strength on reports of a China stock-support meeting. The stock remains well below its 52-week high of 664.00, leaving room if sentiment holds. Flows into Hong Kong favor follow-through on Mon 2 Nov.

    Risk The support meeting could underwhelm or detail could be postponed, fading the rally.

    Sources Bloomberg.com, South China Morning Post

  9. XLUState Street Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF
    Bullish 4x

    ETF43.43 USDlast session +0.67%

    Utilities rose 0.67% to 43.43 while the S&P fell 1.82% and VIX rose 12.91% to 19.42, a classic defensive bid as AI spending concerns spread. The sector held up even as rates stayed high. Caution into midterms keeps defensives bid.

    Risk A fall in yields and risk appetite could rotate funds quickly back to growth.

    Sources Kalkine India, Seeking Alpha, www.irishsun.com

  10. BABAAlibaba Group Holding Limited
    Bullish 3x

    Stock98.04 USDlast session -1.51%

    Alibaba fell 1.51% to 98.04 last US session even as Hang Seng rose, but overnight reports of Beijing support and a new Apple partnership using Alibaba's Qwen AI in China emerged. The gap between Hong Kong strength and the US close suggests catch-up potential. Support headlines are the near-term driver.

    Risk Weak guidance at earnings or soft US data could keep China ADRs sidelined.

    Sources Bloomberg.com, South China Morning Post, The Express Tribune

Bearish

  1. SMHVanEck Semiconductor ETF
    Bearish 6x

    ETF522.49 USDlast session -6.98%

    VanEck Semiconductor ETF fell 6.98% to 522.49 on 1.8 times average volume, the worst US sector as the S&P 500 fell 1.82%. Headlines point to Wall Street scrambling for protection as AI investment risks mount and credit warnings return after AI names lost $5 trillion. With semis already breaking down, the de-risking flow points lower next session.

    Risk A sharp drop in yields or a strong AI capex guide from earnings could trigger a relief snap back in chips.

    Sources Seeking Alpha, Yahoo Finance

  2. XLKTechnology Select Sector SPDR Fund
    Bearish 6x

    ETF179.51 USDlast session -4.89%

    Technology Select ETF fell 4.89% to 179.51 on 2.1 times volume, far worse than the broad market, as AI spending concerns offset strong US growth. Coverage flags protection buying and a credit-market warning haunting AI stocks into earnings. Momentum and positioning favor another leg down over a quick recovery.

    Risk Oversold tech could bounce if midterm polls ease fiscal uncertainty or yields fall further.

    Sources Seeking Alpha, Kalkine India

  3. SNDKSanDisk Corporation
    Bearish 5x

    Stock1,150.89 USDlast session -13.47%

    Sandisk fell 13.47% to 1,150.89 on 2.2 times volume despite record revenue after guiding to muted pricing, and follow-up coverage said Kioxia sees the flash price surge fading. The stock had already plunged over 30% in three days into the semi rout. With pricing momentum doubted, sellers remain in control.

    Risk A firmer flash-memory price view from peers could steady the name after the washout.

    Sources Stocktwits, TIKR.com, StoneX

  4. RDDTReddit, Inc.
    Bearish 5x

    Stock91.73 USDlast session -29.22%

    Reddit fell 29.22% to 91.73 on 5.9 times volume, set for its worst single day ever, as Q3 results clashed with user outlook and Google search traffic concerns. Analysts cut targets on traffic loss fears. The breakdown in volume points to continued pressure next session.

    Risk Bargain hunting after the historic drop or a positive advertiser update could spark a sharp rebound.

    Sources Yahoo Finance, Stocktwits, Seeking Alpha

  5. EWYiShares MSCI South Korea ETF
    Bearish 5x

    ETF152.89 USDlast session -5.52%

    iShares MSCI South Korea fell 5.52% to 152.89 while KOSPI fell 3.48% to 5,730.74, the steepest drop in Asia, after coverage of a $1 trillion market crash tied to AI race worries. Futures point to continued caution into US midterms. The downtrend has room to extend.

    Risk Any fresh stimulus detail from Beijing could lift Korea beta with Asia.

    Sources ChinaTalk, Investor's Business Daily

  6. NVDANVIDIA Corporation
    Bearish 4x

    Stock204.64 USDlast session -4.22%

    Nvidia fell 4.22% to 204.64 on 1.8 times volume even as revenue reportedly soared 106% and beat expectations. AI spending concerns were cited as offsetting strong US growth, with Apple retaking the top market-cap spot from Nvidia. Heavy volume on the decline favors more downside near term.

    Risk A blowout AI capex guide from hyperscalers could reverse the rotation back to leaders.

    Sources ABC News, Kalkine India, Yahoo Finance

  7. SOLSolana
    Bearish 4x

    Crypto94.66 USDT24h -1.56%

    Solana fell 1.56% to 94.66, the weakest major over 24 hours, as headlines flagged persistent ETF outflows and weak spot volume with risk of further decline. Coverage also noted the Binance hacker moving $96 million in stolen Solana to bitcoin. Flows and price action align bearish for the next 24 hours.

    Risk A firm bitcoin bounce or renewed Solana ETF inflows would lift beta quickly.

    Sources CryptoRank, Pluang, Brave New Coin

  8. ETHEthereum
    Bearish 4x

    Crypto2,267.29 USDT24h +0.49%

    Ether rose 0.49% to 2,267.29 in 24 hours but October saw a 16% plunge and all-time-high ETF outflows, now 23 straight trading days with $25.7 million in 24-hour liquidations flagged. Coinbase premium hit an eight-month low. The flow backdrop outweighs the small bounce.

    Risk A pause in outflows or a short squeeze after the October 16% plunge could lift ether.

    Sources CryptoPotato, bloomingbit, TradingView

  9. SilverSilver COMEX (Dec'26) · @SI.1
    Bearish 4x

    Commodity49.28 USDlast session n/a

    Silver sits at 49.28 after crashing nearly 5% in the domestic market, with coverage warning gold and silver may extend losses into the US vote and jobs data and noting a 17% plunge threatening the multi-year uptrend. The metal is already at the low end of its 52-week range. Momentum points down next session.

    Risk A weak dollar or safe-haven bid around election volatility could cushion metals.

    Sources Business Standard, The Indian Awaaz, NDTV Profit

  10. QQQInvesco QQQ Trust
    Bearish 3x

    ETF690.49 USDlast session -3.47%

    Nasdaq 100 ETF fell 3.47% to 690.49 on 2.2 times volume as Wall Street logged its worst day since June and Nasdaq flashed a caution signal. Futures loom soft into midterms. With tech leading the selloff, the path of least resistance stays down.

    Risk Dip buyers front-running the historical post-election seasonal strength could support the Nasdaq.

    Sources NewsNation, Investor's Business Daily, The Motley Fool

What happened

Macro and rates: growth intact, AI capex fears dominate

US equities fell hard into the close on Fri 30 Oct with the S&P 500 down 1.82% to 7,580.07 and Nasdaq down 2.86% to 25,437.00, the worst day since June. The VIX rose 12.91% to 19.42 while the 10-year yield eased 5.6 basis points to 4.933%, as AI spending concerns were cited for offsetting otherwise strong US growth and credit-market warnings resurfaced.

Fed officials justified rate hikes amid persistent inflation and the stock of federal debt topping $40 trillion kept fiscal focus high into US midterms. History pieces noted AI names have lost about $5 trillion recently but also flagged the market's typically strong stretch after elections. Positioning into the vote stays cautious.

Sources Kalkine India, Seeking Alpha, صحيفة مال, ABC News, NewsNation, Investor's Business Daily, Yahoo Finance

US stocks: tech-led drop, defensives bid

Technology fell 4.89% to 179.51 and semis fell 6.98% to 522.49, the worst US sectors, while communications fell 1.29%. Microsoft and Nvidia both beat on earnings with Nvidia revenue reportedly up 106%, but shares still slid with the market. Reddit fell 29.22% to 91.73 on heavy volume after Q3 clashed with user outlook and Google traffic worries, and Sandisk fell 13.47% to 1,150.89 on muted pricing guidance despite record revenue.

Defensives stood out: energy rose 1.91% to 70.02, consumer staples rose 1.41% to 89.42 to a record high, and utilities, health care, materials and real estate also gained. Coverage pointed to a near-complete rotation into defensive and high-quality names as investors seek safety. Volume in staples and semis exceeded averages, underscoring the split.

Sources ABC News, Microsoft, Barchart.com, Yahoo Finance, Stocktwits, TIKR.com, TradingView, Moomoo

Asia split on China support talk

Asia split on Fri 30 Oct: Nikkei fell 2.12% to 63,290.11, KOSPI fell 3.48% to 5,730.74, Taiwan fell 2.49% to 45,211.83 and Shanghai fell 1.44% to 3,599.02, while Hang Seng rose 1.46% to 23,294.42 and Nifty rose 0.51% to 23,053.10. The yen firmed to 157.53 per dollar after the Bank of Japan held rates.

Gains in Hong Kong followed reports that China's banks and regulators will meet on measures to support the market and arrest the slide. The reports are still unconfirmed but were widely cited and coincided with Hang Seng outperformance. Korea's $1 trillion wipeout linked to AI worries and a weak TAIEX backdrop kept regional beta soft.

Sources Bloomberg.com, South China Morning Post, BBN Times, ChinaTalk, Taipei Times, The Business Times

Crypto: hack clean-up helps, ETF flows still soft

Crypto steadied after a turbulent week: bitcoin rose 0.38% to 78,046.68 and ether rose 0.49% to 2,267.29 in 24 hours, while Solana fell 1.56% to 94.66. Binance resumed withdrawals in phases starting with bitcoin, BNB and stablecoins after the $6.3 billion hack, which the FBI attributed to North Korea, with the firm saying it covered most losses.

Flows remain weak: bitcoin ETFs saw about $643 million in daily outflows and ether ETFs extended outflows to 23 straight days, an all-time high streak, with Solana also seeing persistent outflows. Tron rose 2.02% to 0.3136 to lead majors after Binance reopened Tron-network withdrawals. Headlines also flagged $2.5 billion in exchange outflows post-hack.

Sources CNN, WSJ, CoinDesk, TradingView, PBS, BBC, CryptoSlate, 24/7 Wall St., CryptoPotato, bloomingbit, CryptoRank, www.tokenpost.com

Commodities: oil firm, metals slide

Brent crude held at 113.43 and WTI at 104.12 with OPEC+ holding December output steady amid market uncertainty. Banks hiked oil price forecasts on prolonged Gulf disruptions and weekly outlooks noted Brent testing September highs above 100. US oil giants were reported to see profit surges on the Iran war backdrop.

Gold sat at 3,898.90 near a one-year low and silver at 49.28, with coverage warning both may extend losses into the US vote and jobs data after gold slipped 1.5% and silver crashed nearly 5%. Forecasts flagged downside to $45 for silver if the tech selloff deepens. US natural gas held at 2.90 with Waha hub prices turning positive for the first time since February as LNG export flows hit a one-month high, though record supply and El Nino risks cap upside.

Sources Yahoo Finance, Seeking Alpha, Daily Sabah, EnergyNow.com, StoneX, Business Standard, The Indian Awaaz, NDTV Profit, FOREX.com, Moneycontrol.com

Watch next

How earlier calls did

Graded this morning–nothing due
Last 30 days–no calls yet
Bullish calls–no calls yet
Bearish calls–no calls yet
Scored 7x–9x–no calls yet

Nothing was due for grading this morning: calls are graded once their market has traded again.